That Melbourne Victory defeated Melbourne City 3-2 on penalties and advanced into the A-League Men semifinals is now a matter of historical record. Given the dramatic manner in which it concluded, the context of the Melbourne Derby rivalry, and the heroic nature of Paul Izzo’s match-winning performance, it’s likely to be one of the more re-visited chapters in the league’s chronicles, too. But even with the contest long since decided, it still feels incredible that things worked out the way they did.
After 87 minutes on Sunday, Victory was trailing by a goal to nil. They had spent the previous 51 minutes of the game with a one-player disadvantage after Zinédine Machach was dismissed for lashing out at Léo Natel – an infraction that will see him banned for both legs of the semifinals. That meant 67% of their goals this season weren’t on the field, with their two other major creative forces — Daniel Arzani and Bruno Fornaroli — watching on from the bench after being substituted off in the 80th minute.
City had outshot their rivals 22 to six and produced 2.42 expected goals (xG) to 0.37, while not needing to worry about an actual shot on target since a 32nd-minute Machach effort.
But just as their women’s team had in their Grand Final defeat to Sydney the day prior, City would have more than enough chances to win the game but prove unable to strike the killing blow; wasteful finishing, meandering possession, a struggle to fashion high-quality chances, and an inspired goalkeeper condemning both to a disappointing end to their seasons.
Instead, Victory would stare into the abyss, and the abyss would blink. For the first time in their history, they were reduced to 10 men but found a way to come back and triumph and, in doing so, ensure that City won’t play in a Grand Final for the first time since the 2018-19 season. An 88th-minute equaliser was found through Nishan Velupillay.
Extra time was seen off and then Izzo wrote his name into Victory folklore, sending City keeper Jamie Young‘s shootout cheat sheet into the stands, saving a further three penalties, converting one himself, and keeping his side’s season alive at the expense of their bitter crosstown foes.
A remarkable game. But also another almost contradictory chapter in the confounding tale of Victory in the 2023-24 season, a campaign in which they win games they should lose and lose games they should win.
Across the year, this team’s underlying numbers and assembled talents suggest they are amongst the league’s best and yet they have all too often been maddeningly blunt in front of goal and indecisive in possession. They came into the finals on a three-game winless run and were pushed to the brink by a City side that had won three straight games. Their own fans were writing epitaphs for the season mid-game. And yet they won.
Maybe we should have seen it coming, though. Despite their defensive solidarity and head coach Tony Popovic’s focus on maintaining it, Victory has conceded six goals after the 85th minute of games to 10 drop points this season — twice away to semifinal opponents Wellington Phoenix, who Victory could have overhauled for second (finishing on 52 points to the Phoenix’s 50) if they had been able to defend their goal in the final five minutes of games. Yet at the same time, Sunday was the fifth time they have scored after the 85th minute mark of games, picking up seven points by doing so and, now, keeping their campaign alive.
A ridiculous 39% of their games this season have swung on a goal in the final minutes of games; Northwestern University’s gridiron team earned the name the “Cardiac Cats” in 1996, but in 2023-24, we’ve seen a rise of the “Cardiac Vuck.”
Any attempt to determine how they survived on Sunday has to start with Izzo. It simply must, for the custodian produced one of the best individual goalkeeping performances in A-League Men history on Sunday evening.
Less than a minute into the game, he almost coughed up the ball to Jamie Maclaren under pressure but, across the 119 minutes that followed the 29-year-old was near impervious; saving nine of City’s 30 shots, which cumulatively had an expected goals on target (xGOT) figure of 3.41. Tolgay Arslan was denied from the spot in the first half.
Repeated cuts inside and attempts from Natel were repulsed. Arslan, Mat Leckie and Callum Talbot were all denied. Samuel Souprayen’s 29th-minute header blotted his copybook but can hardly be laid at his feet, a near-post Arslan corner getting flicked onto the Frenchman at the back-post by Natel.
“I knew when I tried to try to take on Jamie McLaren in the first minute it was going to be a cooked day,” Izzo joked.
In the shootout, Izzo scored a penalty and saved three, denying Terry Antonis, Talbot, and James Jeggo. With Adelaide United in 2019, he’d been on the wrong end of an inspired Liam Reddy, who set the standard for A-League Men penalty shootouts when he saved four and scored past Izzo to send Perth Glory through to a Grand Final. Now, Izzo had his own moment in the sun; pausing as the stadium exploded around him following the Jeggo save to clarify that yes, that just happened, before being mobbed by teammates.
It will be buried in the excitement — much like Izzo was — but credit too, must go to the anvil that was Victory’s centre-back pairing of Roderick Miranda and Damien Da Silva. The performance off the bench of youngsters Velupillay, Jordi Valadon and Kasey Bos — the younger brother of former City starlet Jordy — was likewise exemplary. With City unable to land a killer blow and seeking to see the game out, Valadon was a whirlwind of intent and energy following his 68th-minute introduction, while Bos’ tireless work, not just on the flank but in the months and months he spent training with the first team before getting a shot, was rewarded with the assist for Velupillay’s leveller.
Valadon and Bos’ involvement in City’s elimination is apt, the butterfly effect in action. Both were brought to Victory by academy director Joe Palatsides, who himself left City in 2019 amidst the doldrums of the late Warren Joyce era, and now the pair have handed their former employers their earliest exit since Joyce lost to Adelaide in that year’s elimination final.
Sparking a period of soul-searching, that defeat led to the former Englishman’s axing and the transformation of the squad into a dominant force under Erick Mombaerts and Patrick Kisnorbo. But now, that era, too, appears concluded. City lost eight first-team players from the team that made it three-straight premierships in 2022-23, with all-time leading scorer Maclaren and all-time leading appearance leader Curtis Good already confirmed to be departing this offseason. The on-field leader of their dominant era, Scott Jamieson, is retired and working as an assistant coach.
Leckie and Andrew Nabbout are off-contract and Arslan, though signed for next season, is the subject of reported interest from abroad. Maclaren, Arslan, and Leckie all watched from the bench during the shootout, with the latter two taken off, per coach Aurelio Vidmar, as they struggled to see out the game — a move that, with hindsight, comes under the spotlight — and Maclaren brought off after “having a bit of a difficult day.”
With an average age of 30 when weighted by minutes played, City was the oldest side in the league this season after prodigies such as Bos, Connor Metcalfe, Nathaniel Atkinson, Marco Tilio all moved to Europe. Sudden shifts in demographics are prone to happen when one produces as much quality youth as City — you can’t expect to be pumping out a cohort of future Socceroos to replace those lost every single season — and injuries haven’t helped either. Harsh lessons, however, have nonetheless been imparted surrounding succession planning. A new cadre of talents such as Max Caputo, Zane Schreiber, Patrick Beach, Alessandro Lopane, Ben Mazzeo, and Harry Politidis are now coming through, but they’ll all be needing minutes.
Vidmar, for his part, looks set to be upgraded from interim coach to permanent. Network Ten first reported the news that he had inked a two-year extension before Sunday’s game, something sources have now confirmed to ESPN. The 57-year-old flagged minimal turnover in the squad’s roster this season, citing the detrimental effect of last season’s upheaval, but to a large extent, this team was already unrecognisable from the dominant force it had been.
The tumult has already happened, with 2023-24 likely to be remembered in years ahead as a season of purgatory between epochs, with the glory of the latter still to be determined. What is for sure is that 2024-25 will mark a new era for City.
