July 2024 also capped off an exceptionally warm 12-month period for Earth’s climate. The global mean temperature during the 12 months ending in July 2024 was 1.67°C above the 1850 to 1900 average.
According to statistical modelling from Berkeley Earth, 2024 now has a 96% likelihood of beating 2023 as Earth’s warmest year on record. While a La Niña-like pattern in the Pacific Ocean is likely to make the last few months of 2024 comparatively cooler than the final months of 2023 on a global scale, this cooling influence shouldn’t be strong enough to prevent 2024 from setting a new annual record for Earth’s global mean temperature.
This year’s record-breaking warmth is due to a mix of natural and man-made factors, including:
- The background warming influence of climate change
- Warming from El Niño early in the year
- Enhanced warming in the North Atlantic Ocean, which Berkeley Earth say is “due to new marine shipping regulations that abruptly reduced maritime sulfur aerosol pollution by ~85%”
While climate change has had the biggest influence on the long-term global temperature trend during the industrial era, natural variability (e.g. the influence from El Niño) has a stronger impact on temperature fluctuations from year to year.
